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When I first read this book in 2006, I was exceptionally impressed. When I entirely re-read this book in 2011, I had to purchase another copy because my first book was so heavily underlined, annotated, tabbed, and personally indexed. Basically, I really wanted to get a fresh take of the author's message. This again was a rewarding decision, yielding a fresh set of annotations and a renewed high regard for the book's content. Now in 2013, I began selectively scanning the book on a third pass, and it occurred to me that this is one of the most valuable books I have ever read. Accordingly, I felt compelled to set the book aside momentarily, and express in an Amazon review my high regard for Kenneth Hammond's subject work.
Most assuredly, I am thankful that as an engineer I had nonetheless ordered this book back in 2006 despite its having "Social Policy" in its title. The book centers on the problematics, assumptions, approaches, and thinking/methods associated with human decision making, in a generalized and conceptual sense. The book consists largely of an insightful critique of differing perspectives on cognitive aspects of decision making from a broad range of decision theorists, along with the interplay and evolution of their respective ideas.
In the introductory chapters, two important complications regarding decision outcomes are described. First, the "irreducible uncertainty" regarding policy decisions affecting populations of individuals is illustrated using the Taylor-Russell diagram. Here, any setting of an acceptance threshold will inevitably produce some "unavoidable injustice" to both the population as a whole and a subset thereof. Their respective identities cannot be known a priori, but only after the subsequent performance outcomes become known. There simply is no way to avoid this situation because prediction cannot be perfect, and hence the impossibility of setting an entirely just acceptance threshold.
Second, Brunswik's lens model (e.g., see "The Psychology of Egon Brunswik") is introduced to characterize how multiple decision indicators, which are each subject to some degree of uncertainty, are blended through non-ideal human indicator processing. The resultantly fallible input data serves to degrade decision making, regardless of the methods employed. Most significantly, such uncertainties render effectively valueless the high precision available with analytical methods. Furthermore, the uncertainties posed by both of these at least partially irremediable factors place even more importance as well as limitations on the preferred utilization of appropriate decision methods. That is the primary focus of the book.
The main development of the book then begins with the sometimes presumed dichotomy between rational methods and intuitive judgments. Rational approaches center on mathematical or logical formulations, while intuitive ones largely address decisions rather tacitly on an experiential basis. These contrasting approaches are shown to in essence be counterparts of the more general theories of truth, namely those of coherence and of correspondence. Rational decision making, which associates with the coherence approach, seeks analytical consistency and holds aesthetic appeal. Alternatively, intuitive decision making, which aligns with the correspondence approach, looks to empirical accuracy and experiential plausibility for its dominant criteria.
Next, author asserts that the coherence and correspondence orientations do not constitute a dichotomy, as many researchers have seemed to presume. Rather, the two can be applied in a complementary manner that exploits their respective strengths and compensates for their associated weaknesses. Inherent in the notion of quasirationality by definition, this complementarity involves an adaptive blending of analytical and intuitive techniques throughout the decision process. Ultimately, this reconciliation of analysis and intuition motivates and pervades the five very compelling premises described in Chapters 6 and 7. Then, Chapter 8 presents an enlightening summary and critique of the author's advocated complementary decision making approach in a conceptual outline form.
The last third of the book relates a range of historical examples of decision challenges, and examines the ramifications of applying the advocated decision making approach. Accordingly, this closure provides a more tangible elaboration of the approach itself and affords valuable heuristic insights as well. For many, of course, the examples themselves may prove to be the most appealing part of the book.
In all, Professor Hammond's book offers a thoughtful and compelling account of decision making concepts and approaches, together with their respective advantages and rationales. These are all enriched with some authentic scholarly wisdom. Moreover, the advocated complementary approach embodies general utility and distinct value across disciplines. It surely accords well with my fifty years of pragmatic engineering experience.
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